Sudan

What the Conflict is Really About

Sudan’s civil war is a lethal mix of personal rivalry, foreign meddling, and weaponised narratives. It is producing the world’s largest displacement and hunger crisis, while external backers treat it as a proxy arena. Mediation efforts remain paralyzed because the conflict is existential for its leaders and profitable for their allies.

A Struggle for Absolute Power
This is not an ideological war but a zero-sum fight between two generals, Burhan and Hemedti , both of whom once partnered in coups. Their falling out over RSF integration ignited open war. Each sees survival as dependent on eliminating the other.

Proxy War and Resource Politics
Sudan has become a battleground for foreign interests:
UAE backs RSF for gold access and regional leverage, using covert supply chains through Chad.
Russia (Wagner) aligns with RSF for gold smuggling and sanctions evasion.
Egypt & Iran back SAF to preserve regional influence and counterbalance UAE/Qatar.
This external fueling prolongs the war, making peace talks almost impossible.

Competing Narratives and Information War
RSF positions itself as fighting for democracy (#democracy_battle), despite its Janjaweed roots.
SAF frames RSF as foreign mercenaries (“Chadians”), playing into xenophobic narratives.
Both sides brand civilians in rival-held zones as “traitors,” weaponising fear and mistrust.
Disinformation (e.g., rumors of Hemedti’s death and AI-generated appearances) intensifies the fog of war

Kenya’s Controversial Role
Kenya, once a respected mediator, has damaged its credibility by appearing pro-RSF:
Hosting RSF meetings announcing a parallel government.
Perceptions of Ruto–Hemedti ties and UAE-linked economic deals.
Sudan’s retaliation, (recalling its ambassador, banning imports), marks a sharp collapse in Kenya’s peacebroker reputation.