South Sudan

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Status of conflict

Conflict Status: Fragile peace / simmering conflict (no full-scale war, but peace deal shaky, violence persists at local scale).

Common name used for the war/conflict

SS Civil War

Conflict Start Date

Civil war 2013–2018 (Kiir vs Machar); fragile peace since 2018 but chronic violence persists.

Armed Factions

SPLA-IO (Riek Machar); various “holdout” groups; local communal militias.

Triggers

Elite rivalry between Kiir (Dinka) and Machar (Nuer) in 2013; mutinies spread along ethnic lines.

Key Events:

2011: Independence from Sudan after decades-long civil war.
2013: Civil war erupts between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and VP Riek Machar; conflict takes on ethnic dimensions (Dinka vs Nuer).
2015: Peace deal signed but quickly collapses.
2016: Renewed fighting in Juba displaces thousands.
2018: Revitalised peace agreement creates fragile power-sharing deal.
2020: Transitional government formed; Machar reinstated as VP.
2022–2023: Peace still fragile, with localised violence (Unity State, Jonglei, Upper Nile) and armed groups outside the agreement.
2024: Oil disputes with Sudan and ongoing clashes between militias undermine transition.

Humanitarian/Community Impact:

400,000 killed in civil war; 2.3M displaced abroad, 2M internally; 75% of population in need of aid.

External Actors

Uganda supported Kiir; Sudan historically meddled; regional IGAD peace mediation.

What the Conflict is Really About

South Sudan’s war is a story of independence betrayed. Born in 2011, the state collapsed within two years into a brutal Kiir vs Machar power struggle.

Ethnic polarisation between Dinka and Nuer turned political rivalry into massacre.

The 2018 peace deal stopped open war, but the “unity government” is paralysed, reforms delayed, elections postponed, and armed groups still active.

Meanwhile, local wars within the war, cattle raids, revenge killings, and resource conflicts, continue to kill thousands yearly, even without full-scale civil war.

In practice, South Sudan is a militarised patronage network, where elites hoard oil rents while civilians starve.

The government survives thanks to oil money and regional allies, but ordinary people live in constant insecurity.