Ethiopia

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Ethiopia

Status of conflict

Tigray truce fragile, but Amhara & Oromia insurgencies still raging. State at war with multiple regions.

Common name used for the war/conflict

The Tigray War – The war fought in the dark

Active Conflict Start Date

3–4 November 2020.

Key parties

Government side: Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF), Amhara regional forces, Fano militia, with drones and weapons from UAE, Turkey, Iran, and China.
Opposition side: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), allied with Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) during 2021–2022.
Trigger: Ethiopian government accused the TPLF of attacking the ENDF Northern Command base in Mekelle; the TPLF claimed it was pre-emptive self-defense.

Key Events:

2018–2020 (Tensions): Abiy Ahmed becomes PM (2018), makes peace with Eritrea, sidelines TPLF. Prosperity Party formed (2019); TPLF refuses to join. COVID-19 delays national elections (2020); Tigray holds its own in defiance.
Nov 2020: War begins with blackout in Tigray. ENDF takes Mekelle (28 Nov).
2021: Axum massacre by Eritrean forces (Nov 2020 revealed). TDF retakes Mekelle (June), expands war into Amhara and Afar. By Nov, TDF and OLA threaten Addis Ababa.
2021–22: Government counter-offensive with foreign drones pushes TDF back. Humanitarian truce declared March 2022.
Aug–Nov 2022: Fighting resumes. Eritrean offensive captures towns. Nov 2, 2022: Pretoria Agreement signed.

Humanitarian/Community Impact:

Deaths: 162,000–600,000 (est.), one of the deadliest 21st century conflicts.
Displacement: 4.38M IDPs in Ethiopia, 1M+ in Tigray, 60,000+ fled to Sudan.
Starvation: Blockade led to famine; 60% of Tigrayan households in severe hunger (2024).
War Crimes: All sides accused; massacres, ethnic cleansing, systematic sexual violence including gang rape and reproductive mutilation.
Infrastructure Damage: 88% of schools and 86% of health facilities damaged/destroyed; rebuilding cost est. $20B.

Post-Agreement:

Pretoria deal halted main fighting, but Eritrean and Amhara forces still occupy Western/Southern Tigray.
IDPs unable to return.
Ongoing unrest in Amhara and Oromia.
Limited accountability; UN investigation mandate ended.

What the Conflict is Really About

The Tigray war was driven by a clash between a centralizing state under Abiy, backed by Eritrea and foreign drone power, Versus a former ruling elite (TPLF) fighting to preserve federalist autonomy. All of this played out against a backdrop of centuries-old ethnic rivalries and modern geopolitical maneuvering, making Ethiopia’s war both a domestic battle for power and a regional proxy struggle.

Domestic Power Struggle: TPLF had dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition (1991–2018). When Oromo-led protests forced leadership change, Abiy Ahmed rose to power.
Abiy’s centralizing Prosperity Party sidelined the TPLF, who retreated to Tigray.
When Addis postponed 2020 elections, Tigray held its own in defiance — a direct challenge to Abiy’s authority.

Ethnic and Historical Grievances: Long antagonism between Tigrayan and Amhara elites, especially over Western Tigray. Oromo discontent also shaped the landscape, with the Oromo Liberation Army at times allied with Tigrayans.
Geopolitics & Regional Alliances:
Eritrea: A sworn enemy of the TPLF since the 1998–2000 border war, joined Abiy to crush them, committing atrocities in the process.
Amhara Militias: Entered to reclaim disputed land.
Foreign Drones: Supplied by UAE, Turkey, Iran, China, decisive in turning tide against TDF.
Sudan: Hosted refugees and reignited Al-Fashaga border disputes.
Red Sea Politics: Ethiopia’s push for sea access now risks renewed war with Eritrea.